SMM Exclusive: Overview of China Metal Production in February 2025 and March Forecast  

SMM's monthly metal production data is scheduled for release at each month-end, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and provide clarity on the future trends of the non-ferrous market for industry chain participants and investors. Our production data cover a diversifed variety of metals, from base metals to new energy metals (such as cobalt and lithium), to PV and rare earth, etc.

Copper Cathode

In February, China's copper cathode production increased by 44,400 mt MoM, up 4.38%, and rose 11.35% YoY, exceeding expectations by 2,800 mt.

February copper cathode production increased significantly as expected, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. Smelters that underwent maintenance in January resumed normal production, boosting output; 2. Although copper concentrate TCs have fallen into negative territory, most smelters had stocked sufficient raw materials before the Chinese New Year, and February production was not affected by the low copper concentrate TCs (as of February 28, the monthly index for imported copper concentrates was -$9.14/mt, down $10.90/mt MoM), allowing normal production to continue. The reasons for the production exceeding expectations in February include: 1. A new smelter in Southwest China commenced production; 2. The capacity utilisation rate of a new smelter in Jiangxi continued to improve.

In summary, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in February was 82.81%, up 2.59 percentage points MoM; among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 86.63%, up 3.48 percentage points MoM, medium-sized smelters at 76.81%, up 1.68 percentage points MoM, and small smelters at 64.85%, down 2.38 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 87.1%, up 1.1 percentage points MoM, while smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anodes) had an operating rate of 62.4%, down 6.3 percentage points MoM.

In March, according to our statistics, three smelters have maintenance plans, but the impact on actual production is relatively small, with some manufacturers indicating that the impact of maintenance will be reflected in April. Additionally, the increased number of production days in March will also lead to higher output. However, due to tight copper scrap supply, the production of copper cathode by smelters using copper scrap remains at a low level. Some copper cathode producers using copper concentrates have had to reduce production loads due to significant losses, a situation expected to become more common in the future. Reportedly, based on the spot order price of copper concentrates, losses amount to approximately 2,083 yuan/mt, and based on long-term contracts, losses are around 678 yuan/mt. Furthermore, it is worth noting that recent increases in sulphuric acid prices, driven by rising downstream demand, have partially offset smelters' losses. The market will monitor whether sulphuric acid prices can continue to rise.

Based on production schedules, SMM estimates that domestic copper cathode production in March will increase by 42,000 mt MoM, up 3.97%, and rise by 100,700 mt YoY, up 10.08%. The sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry in March is expected to be 86.24%, up 3.42 percentage points MoM; among them, the operating rate of large smelters is expected to be 90.91%, up 4.27 percentage points MoM, medium-sized smelters at 77.90%, up 1.08 percentage points MoM, and small smelters at 68.08%, up 3.23 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates is expected to be 90.7%, up 3.6 percentage points MoM, while smelters not using copper concentrates (using copper scrap or copper anodes) are expected to have an operating rate of 64.7%, up 2.3 percentage points MoM. Finally, we anticipate a decline in production in April, mainly due to increased maintenance at smelters and significant losses leading some smelters to reduce their capacity utilisation rates.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in February 2025 (28 days) increased by 0.4% YoY but decreased by 95,000 mt MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum increased MoM, mainly driven by the resumption of production at previously curtailed enterprises and the activation of replacement projects following the recovery of aluminum profits. During the Chinese New Year holiday, many aluminum plants' casting ingot output fell short of expectations. Coupled with stable downstream purchases after the resumption of work and production, the proportion of liquid aluminum in the industry rose by 1.7 percentage points MoM and 6.7 percentage points YoY to 71.0%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in February decreased by 18.4% YoY to approximately 969,000 mt.

Capacity Changes: As of the end of February, SMM statistics show that China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.81 million mt, with operating capacity at around 43.64 million mt. The industry's operating rate increased by 0.07 percentage points MoM and 2.26 percentage points YoY to 95.3%. Currently, domestic aluminum operating capacity is in a slight growth phase. Following the recovery of aluminum profits in February, several previously curtailed enterprises in Sichuan and Guangxi resumed production. Additionally, a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminum smelter in Qinghai commenced production, contributing to the growth momentum of aluminum operating capacity.

Production Forecast: In March 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity is expected to rise further as related enterprises activate and reach full production, with annualized operating capacity stabilizing at 43.84 million mt/year by the end of March. With the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" period, downstream operating rates are expected to rebound, and the new PV policy may stimulate a rush for installations, potentially driving growth in downstream aluminum demand. The proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise again to around 74% in March. Further attention is needed on the resumption of aluminum capacity in various regions and the operating conditions of downstream sectors such as aluminum billets.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in February 2025 (28 days) decreased by 8.5% MoM but increased by 10.4% YoY. As of February 28, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was approximately 105.02 million mt, with operating capacity increasing by 0.3% MoM, and the operating rate at 86.1%. During the month, domestic alumina operating capacity showed mixed changes. On the addition side, previously commissioned capacity in Shandong achieved output, supporting operating capacity and production for the month. On the reduction side, some alumina producers opted for maintenance due to a sharp decline in alumina prices while ore prices remained high, leading to a pullback in operating rates. Currently, no large-scale production cuts are anticipated, and the alumina spot market is expected to remain in surplus in the short term, with prices likely to fluctuate rangebound. Additionally, recent frequent news of domestic alumina exports suggests that China is expected to maintain a net export position.

March Forecast: Many alumina refineries reported adjustments to operating capacity in March. Apart from a capacity replacement project by a Shandong enterprise, most adjustments involve short-term maintenance. Additionally, new capacity in Guangxi is nearing commissioning, though the exact timing remains uncertain. SMM will continue to monitor developments. Domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to reach 90.03 million mt/year in March. Despite significant profit declines, the industry has not seen large-scale production cuts, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online, easing domestic supply pressure. Continued attention is needed on alumina capacity changes and export demand.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in February 2025 decreased by 2.1% YoY, mainly due to February having one less day compared to the same period last year. The average monthly operating rate of overseas aluminum smelters reached 88.2%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.3% YoY.

SMM has learned that the resumption of production at three aluminum smelters under Germany's Trimet is progressing steadily. By mid-2025, the Essen (165,000 mt/year) and Hamburg (135,000 mt/year) plants are expected to reach full production, while the Voerde (95,000 mt/year) plant is scheduled to operate at full capacity in Q4 2025. These three plants had previously reduced capacity by 70% in 2022 due to high energy costs, affecting a combined output of 276,000 mt. Since announcing the resumption of production in April 2024, progress has been smooth, and the total output of the three plants in 2025 is expected to reach 400,000 mt. Currently, the Essen and Hamburg plants have recovered to 75% capacity, while the Voerde plant's operating rate is approximately 68%, with about 108,000 mt of capacity yet to resume.

Additionally, the expansion project at Indonesia's Hua Chin aluminum smelter has made significant progress. The second phase of 250,000 mt capacity, which was suspended in November 2024 due to cost issues, has now been fully commissioned, bringing the plant's total existing capacity to 480,000 mt, with production expected to increase steadily. Meanwhile, South32 is working to mitigate the impact of social unrest in Mozambique on its aluminum smelter. The company's share of production for FY2025 (July 1, 2025 - June 30, 2026) is expected to be 350,000 mt, down 10,000 mt from the initial guidance of 550,000 mt for the plant.

Looking ahead to March, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by 1.8% YoY, with a capacity utilisation rate of approximately 88.4%, up 0.2% MoM.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in February 2025 decreased by 2.3% YoY. The average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries reached 82.9%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY. Since its commissioning in September 2024, Indonesia's Mempawah alumina refinery has steadily increased production. Meanwhile, the 1 million mt alumina refinery constructed by Jinjiang Group in Indonesia commenced production in January and is currently in the ramp-up stage. These new facilities drove a 14.7% YoY increase in Indonesia's alumina production in February. Outside Indonesia, no new capacity has been commissioned overseas. However, with the commissioning of domestic bauxite projects in India in Q2, its alumina production is expected to increase.

Looking ahead to March, SMM expects overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production to increase by 3% YoY. The operating rate is expected to reach 83.1%, up 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY.

Primary Lead

In February 2025, China's primary lead production continued its downward trend, with a MoM decline of 4.13 percentage points but a slight YoY increase of 0.78 percentage points. Cumulative primary lead production for January-February 2025 decreased by 0.21% YoY.

It is understood that the Chinese New Year holiday spanned late January to early February, leading to further declines in primary lead production due to holidays, maintenance, and technological upgrades at lead smelters. Production has been declining for three consecutive months. During this period, although lead smelters in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Yunnan, and Guangdong resumed production after January maintenance, equipment maintenance at medium and large smelters in Henan, Hunan, and Yunnan followed, either as routine maintenance or due to unexpected equipment failures. Additionally, the natural reduction in working days in February (only 28 days) further dragged down primary lead production.

Looking ahead to March, with the holiday factor eliminated and an increase in working days (March has 31 calendar days), lead smelters will have more production time than the previous month, leading to a certain increase in output. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized lead smelters in Hunan will complete technological upgrades, and medium and large smelters in Yunnan, Guangdong, Hunan, and Jiangxi will finish maintenance, resulting in significant supply growth. SMM expects primary lead production in March to rise sharply, with a MoM increase of approximately 23 percentage points.

Secondary Lead

In February 2025, secondary crude lead production experienced a significant decline, down 23.17% MoM but up 6.08% YoY. Secondary refined lead production decreased by 24.39% MoM but increased by 1.04% YoY.

In January, the festive atmosphere of the Chinese New Year led downstream battery producers to start their holidays early, resulting in weak pre-holiday stockpiling demand. Difficulties in lead ingot transactions, combined with poor profits, caused an increase in the number of secondary lead smelters reducing or halting production, leading to a MoM production decline of over 65,000 mt in February.After the Lantern Festival, secondary lead smelters are experiencing a wave of production resumption. Due to some large enterprises starting production near month-end and the furnace heating cycle, lead production is expected to be reflected in March. Additionally, apart from smelters planning to resume production in March, new secondary lead capacity may gradually come online in March. Currently, newly built large smelters in Guizhou and Jiangsu are preparing raw materials for production testing. From the data, the increase in secondary lead production in March may exceed 90,000 mt.

Refined Zinc

In February 2025, China's refined zinc production decreased by approximately 8% MoM and declined by over 4% YoY, with cumulative production from January to February down by more than 6% YoY, slightly exceeding expectations. Among these, domestic zinc alloy production in February increased by over 3,000 mt MoM. Entering February, domestic smelters' production declined MoM, mainly due to three fewer production days in February and some smelters taking holidays. Additionally, production cuts from maintenance shutdowns in Hunan, Gansu, Yunnan, and Sichuan contributed to the decrease, while resumption of production and maintenance recovery in Guangxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang provided some offsetting increases.

SMM expects China's refined zinc production in March 2025 to increase by over 13% MoM and nearly 4% YoY, with cumulative production from January to March down by more than 6% YoY. Overall, smelters' production in March is expected to increase significantly. With the accelerated rebound in zinc concentrate TC, the increase in production days by three, and the recovery from Chinese New Year maintenance in Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Sichuan, as well as capacity expansion in Shaanxi and Qinghai, are expected to contribute to the main production increase. Meanwhile, maintenance in Sichuan, Gansu, and Guizhou will contribute to a slight decrease. Overall, March production is expected to exceed expectations.

Refined Tin

According to SMM data based on market communication, China's refined tin production in February 2024 decreased by 7.36% MoM but achieved a significant YoY growth of 11.14%. The overall output of tin ingots in February continued to decline due to tightening supply of tin ore and scrap, coupled with the Chinese New Year holiday. This data reflects significant structural characteristics, highlighting three pressures and structural opportunities faced by the industry: first, the continuous tightening of the tin concentrate supply chain imposes rigid constraints on capacity; second, the cyclical production adjustments triggered by the traditional Chinese New Year holiday; third, the industry's resilience in capacity despite raw material constraints.

(1) Yunnan Region: As the core area for tin smelting in China, Yunnan's capacity utilisation rate declined in February. The primary constraint stemmed from raw material pressure: Myanmar ore imports have remained below the 30,000 mt physical content warning line for six consecutive months. Smelters in the region face historically low concentrate TC, directly reducing overall production enthusiasm. (2) Jiangxi Region: Mainly affected by the characteristics of raw material structure. The seasonal stagnation of the scrap recycling system in winter expanded the raw material gap. Although the operating rate recovered after the Lantern Festival, the raw material inventory cycle shortened, significantly delaying capacity recovery. (3) Other Regional Dynamics: Inner Mongolia maintained stable operations, benefiting from the unique advantage of captive mines; emerging production areas in Anhui and surrounding regions experienced a sharp 28-percentage-point drop in capacity utilisation due to delayed arrival of imported ore and increased sorting costs for scrap, revealing insufficient risk resistance in peripheral regions.

Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production in March is expected to increase by approximately 15% MoM. Driving factors include the recovery of full production days after the Chinese New Year disruption and the replenishment of scrap tin.

Refined Nickel

In February 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% MoM but increased by 15.12% YoY. The industry's operating rate stood at 52%, slightly lower than the previous month. The decline in production was mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday and fewer calendar days in February.

In February, nickel prices fluctuated downward, then rebounded before pulling back and stabilising. In the short term, Indonesian nickel ore prices remained strong due to several factors: (1) rainy weather affecting mining progress; (2) higher moisture content in ore increasing transportation costs per unit of effective value; (3) the rainy season impacting land transportation efficiency and causing ore liquefaction, which raises the risk of vehicle overturns, further increasing transportation costs. Therefore, cost support remained strong recently.

In February 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% MoM but increased by 15.12% YoY. On the supply and demand side of refined nickel, downstream enterprises were mostly in semi-operational status during the Chinese New Year holiday, coupled with fewer calendar days and a mediocre spot market. Overall domestic demand was weak in February. On the supply side, although some enterprises reduced production in February, the overall industry supply remained high. As of February 28, SMM's six-region inventory totalled 45,456 mt, with the fundamental supply-demand surplus pattern unchanged.

In March, the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday is expected to dissipate, and demand may recover to normal levels. Under the supply surplus, March production is expected to increase by 13.56% MoM and 29.16% YoY.

NPI

In February 2025, China's NPI production in physical content decreased by approximately 11.38% MoM, while metal content decreased by about 8.24% MoM. Both physical and metal content of NPI continued to decline compared to the previous month, mainly due to fewer production days in February and the ongoing rainy season in the Philippines, which kept Philippine nickel ore prices firm. Smelters faced weak production drivers, and some regions underwent maintenance, leading to a decline in output. Additionally, low-grade NPI production in both physical and metal content also declined, affected by weak downstream demand, adjustments in production loads by certain smelters, and some integrated stainless steel mills entering maintenance periods for 200-series stainless steel due to losses. Both high-grade and low-grade NPI metal content declined in February.

In March 2025, China's NPI production in physical content is expected to increase by approximately 4.83% MoM, while metal content is expected to rise by about 0.97% MoM. According to the SMM survey, domestic high-grade NPI smelters' raw material inventories are at low levels, and the release of Philippine nickel ore still requires the end of the rainy season. High-grade NPI metal content is expected to decrease by approximately 0.52% MoM in March. Meanwhile, low-grade NPI production is expected to increase as the stainless steel market gradually recovers, with 200-series production anticipated to rise. Integrated low-grade NPI metal content is expected to improve compared to February. Overall, China's NPI metal content is expected to increase in March.

Indonesian NPI

In February 2025, Indonesian NPI metal content decreased by approximately 7.32% MoM but increased by about 14.85% YoY. Although the RKAB in Indonesia had clear approval quotas, mine output remained limited. Combined with smelters in major production areas depleting previous nickel ore inventories and entering a concentrated procurement phase, domestic trade nickel ore premiums in Indonesia rose in the short term. This pushed up production costs for high-grade NPI, compressing smelters' profits and limiting overall production drivers. Additionally, severe losses at certain smelters in major production areas led to some production lines entering management optimisation phases, with previous nickel ore inventories depleted, resulting in a sharp decline in overall production.

In March 2025, Indonesian NPI metal content is expected to increase by approximately 1.54% MoM and 14.8% YoY. During March, Indonesia enters Ramadan, and weather changes bring increased rainfall, potentially limiting nickel mine output. Smelters' production loads may also decline. According to the SMM survey, production in major areas did not show significant increases despite more production days compared to February. Some production lines underwent concentrated maintenance of power equipment, and certain lines under management optimisation remained at low output levels. Additionally, insufficient supply of high-grade nickel ore in Indonesia led to a decline in NPI grades across regions. Overall, production is expected to see a slight increase, mainly driven by ramp-ups at new capacities and some capacities transitioning from high-grade nickel matte to high-grade NPI production, boosting output slightly.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM data, China's nickel sulphate production in February 2025 reached approximately 23,900 mt in metal content, with physical content production at about 108,500 mt, down by approximately 8.16% MoM and 6.94% YoY. On the demand side, overall demand weakened due to fewer downstream orders and fewer calendar days. On the supply side, some nickel salt producers reduced production due to losses, and some enterprises had not resumed production after the holiday, leading to an overall supply decline. However, with increased production days and a recovery in downstream orders, nickel salt production showed some improvement. By March, China's nickel sulphate production is expected to rise to 26,100 mt in metal content, with physical content production estimated at 118,800 mt, up by approximately 6.24% MoM but down by about 22.98% YoY.

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In February 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production increased both MoM and YoY. The main reason was the resumption of normal production at manganese salt plants after the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a slight increase in market supply. Downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises mostly executed long-term contracts, with relatively stable demand. Some ternary cathode precursor enterprises with well-established self-supply systems also produced manganese sulphate. By March 2025, with more calendar days compared to February, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market is expected to recover slightly, driving further capacity release at manganese salt plants. Production is expected to increase again MoM but decline YoY.

EMD

In February 2025, EMD production increased slightly MoM. The main reason was the resumption of normal production after the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a slight increase in market supply. The downstream primary battery market showed some recovery, with slight growth in demand, driving the production of EMD used for carbon-zinc battery and alkaline manganese dbattery. However, the downstream secondary battery market remained in the off-season, with no significant demand improvement, and LMO-type manganese dioxide production remained stable. By March 2025, the LMO market is expected to recover, coupled with more calendar days in March compared to February. Overall, manganese dioxide production is expected to continue its slight upward trend.

Mn3O4

In February 2025, Mn3O4 production increased slightly MoM and showed significant YoY growth. This trend was mainly due to most enterprises resuming normal production after the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to increased market supply. Meanwhile, the downstream LMO market inventory was at low levels, with some just-in-time procurement demand, driving strong production enthusiasm for battery-grade Mn3O4 and stable production schedules. By March 2025, the LMO market is expected to recover further, with increased procurement demand. Additionally, the price rebound of Mn3O4 in February also boosted production motivation, leading to further growth in production schedules. Considering these factors, Mn3O4 production is expected to continue its slight MoM increase while maintaining YoY growth.

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

According to SMM data, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in February 2025 further declined, down by 5.61% MoM and 5.86% YoY. Among these, Inner Mongolia's production decreased by 5.01% MoM. In February, mainstream stainless steel mills maintained low procurement prices for high-carbon ferrochrome, leading to losses in ferrochrome production. Coupled with fewer calendar days in February, shortened production cycles, and the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, some ferrochrome producers in south China chose to halt production, resulting in a significant decline in high-carbon ferrochrome output.

Looking ahead to March 2025, the retail supply of high-carbon ferrochrome is expected to remain tight, with retail prices continuing to rise. Additionally, as stainless steel mills' production schedules are expected to increase significantly in March, demand for ferrochrome will also grow. The market generally expects procurement prices for high-carbon ferrochrome by stainless steel mills to rise, stimulating production enthusiasm among ferrochrome producers.Recently, the continuous arrival of low-cost chrome ore futures is expected to alleviate the cost pressure on ferrochrome producers. Considering the longer number of days in March and the planned resumption of production by some ferrochrome producers temporarily shut down for maintenance, ferrochrome production in March is expected to increase.

Stainless Steel

According to SMM's survey data, in February 2025, the total stainless steel production in China was up 0.1% MoM and up 15% YoY. Among them, the 200-series production decreased by 5.9% MoM, while the 300-series and 400-series increased by 1.2% and 6.5% MoM, respectively. In February, upstream stainless steel supply remained at a high level, but the market supply and demand were still weak. After the Chinese New Year, some steel mills resumed production, but overall supply was limited. In mid-to-late March, with the gradual recovery of downstream operating rates after the Chinese New Year, market demand may rebound rapidly.

In February after the Chinese New Year, the market recovery was slow, with downstream operating rates and order volumes generally weak, leading to an inventory buildup in stainless steel. For 200-series products, production declined due to the persistently high prices of raw materials such as high-silicon SiMn alloy and EMM, coupled with the slow recovery of downstream markets like construction. As for the 300-series, NPI prices remained firm, while finished product prices were stagnant due to weak demand and high inventory. Large steel mills with integrated cost advantages and sufficient funds maintained relatively high operating rates, while domestic small and medium-sized non-integrated stainless steel mills saw slight changes in operating rates. Overall, 300-series production increased slightly. For the 400-series, operating rates varied across steel mills. Looking ahead to March, upstream stainless steel supply is expected to remain high, with market supply and demand gradually loosening. Prices of raw materials such as NPI, high-carbon ferrochrome, and stainless steel scrap are likely to remain firm. Overall, it is expected that in March, the 200-series, 300-series, and 400-series will increase by 12.3%, 14.4%, and 16.1% MoM, respectively.

EMM

In February 2025, China's EMM production decreased by over 3% MoM but increased by over 8% YoY. The main reasons for the production decline in February were: safety inspections at mines led to reduced manganese carbonate ore output at some mines, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for EMM production and slight production cuts at some EMM plants. Additionally, the slow resumption of steel mills after the Chinese New Year dampened their enthusiasm for EMM procurement, leading many EMM plants to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Consequently, EMM plants that conducted equipment maintenance before and after the holiday experienced slow resumption progress. Combined with the fewer calendar days in February, the overall EMM supply continued to decline.

In March, the overall operating rate of manganese plants is expected to remain at 70% of capacity. Some EMM plants that had previously suspended production plan to resume operations, and with the increased calendar days in March, the overall EMM supply is expected to increase. Based on production schedule surveys of manganese plants, March production is expected to increase MoM on the supply side.

SiMn Alloy

In February 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production decreased by approximately 2% MoM and over 10% YoY. The main reasons for the decline in February were: high operating rates in north China, such as Inner Mongolia, where production continued even during the Chinese New Year, although some SiMn plants conducted equipment maintenance during the holiday, leading to slight production reductions. In Ningxia, most enterprises maintained normal production with relatively stable daily output. In south China, production pressure was relatively high due to rising manganese ore and electricity costs, resulting in slight production declines and continued reductions in overall operating rates. Consequently, both northern and southern regions experienced production declines, and with fewer calendar days in February, total SiMn production nationwide turned to a decrease.

In March, SiMn plants in cost-advantaged regions like Inner Mongolia are expected to maintain high operating rates. Considering the continued weak performance of SiMn prices and limited profit margins for enterprises, operating rate increases in other regions are still expected to be low. However, with more calendar days in March compared to February, overall SiMn production is expected to turn to an increase.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market communication, China's silicon metal production in February 2025 decreased by 14,500 mt, down 4.8% MoM, and decreased by 16% YoY. From January to February 2025, cumulative silicon metal production decreased by 97,000 mt, down 14% YoY.

The MoM production decline in February was mainly due to fewer production days. However, based on daily average production, February's daily average output was higher than January's. Only a few silicon enterprises reduced or suspended production in February, while most maintained stable operating levels. Due to maintenance resumption or new capacity additions by leading enterprises in Xinjiang and some new capacity coming online, daily silicon metal supply continued to increase.

By province, silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu maintained high operating rates, with these three regions accounting for over 80% of total supply. Meanwhile, Sichuan and Yunnan accounted for less than 6%. With high costs in southern silicon enterprises and a sluggish silicon metal market, the high proportion of northern supply is expected to persist in the coming months.

In March, with the production release from newly resumed silicon furnaces and additional resumption expectations for some silicon enterprises, combined with increased production days, silicon metal production is expected to increase significantly to approximately 340,000 mt.

Polysilicon

In February, polysilicon production continued to decline by approximately 4% MoM compared to January, mainly due to fewer calendar days. Overall operating rates remained stable, with only minor impacts from the resumption and ramp-up of production by a few second- and third-tier enterprises. In March, domestic polysilicon production is expected to increase due to more calendar days, with operating rates remaining largely stable. A polysilicon enterprise plans maintenance in mid-March, causing a slight impact.

PV Module

According to SMM statistics, China's PV module production in February 2025 decreased by approximately 5% MoM, with an industry operating rate of about 35.91%. The main production reduction came from domestic bases of Chinese enterprises. The primary reason for the decline was fewer production days due to the holiday, which affected planned production volumes. Leading enterprises experienced significant production cuts in February, while second- and third-tier enterprises, already operating at low rates, saw limited reductions. Module enterprises adjusted production plans based on their own orders and future order visibility. In March, most enterprises are expected to significantly increase production due to rising distributed installation orders and centralized shipment demand, with production increasing by 35% MoM and the industry operating rate reaching approximately 48.46%. Domestic bases of Chinese enterprises are expected to increase production. Centralized orders are gradually being delivered, and the shipment pace is accelerating. With increased distributed market installation orders, leading enterprises have relatively good Q1 order visibility. Leading module enterprises are expected to see increased production days in March compared to February, with significant production growth. Small factories and tolling businesses are also expected to see increased orders and production.

Solar Cell

In February, solar cell operating rates were 43.14%, down 13.54% MoM, mainly due to the Chinese New Year break. However, operating rates varied among different types of enterprises. First- and second-tier specialized solar cell manufacturers maintained operating rates above 80%, while integrated leading module manufacturers generally had operating rates below 40%. Third- and fourth-tier specialized solar cell manufacturers and integrated manufacturers were mostly fully shut down. In March, after most bases resumed production, solar cell operating rates rose to 59.73%, with planned production increasing by 38.46% MoM. The growth mainly came from Topcon cells. However, despite the significant increase in solar cell supply, it lagged behind the growth in module production, leading to tight solar cell supply in March.

PV Film

In February, PV film production schedules increased by 16% MoM. The main reason was the increase in PV module production schedules, with policy-driven installation rush sentiment among module manufacturers and rising downstream demand expectations, leading to higher film production. Driven by the strong installation rush in H1, PV film production is expected to rise again in March.

PV-Grade EVA

In February, PV-grade EVA production reached 110,000 mt, up 7% MoM. The increase was due to some enterprises switching to PV-grade materials and rising demand from downstream module manufacturers. However, with more petrochemical plant maintenance expected in March, PV-grade EVA production is forecast to decline slightly.

PV Glass

In February, domestic PV glass production decreased again, down 9.49% MoM, with a larger reduction compared to January. The fewer production days in February significantly reduced glass supply. However, with more furnace resumption activities, including nearly 3,000 mt/day furnace resumption lines in February, and further resumption plans, the overall supply showed a trend of turning positive compared to expectations. PV glass supply is expected to increase significantly in March.

DMC

In February, domestic silicone DMC production decreased by 9.61% MoM but increased by 11.76% YoY. Domestic silicone monomer enterprises began joint efforts to refrain from price cuts, with production cuts as the basis for price stabilization. In February, 10 monomer enterprises reduced production to varying degrees, with weekly supply dropping to less than 40,000 mt and industry operating rates falling below 70%, leading to reduced supply. In March, domestic silicone operating rates are expected to see slight increases due to production line resumption at some monomer enterprises.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM data, China's magnesium ingot production in February 2025 decreased by 4.6% MoM. Some smelters reduced production due to a combination of supply surplus and weak demand, which caused magnesium ingot prices to decline continuously over the past three months. When prices fell below the break-even point for smelters, they were forced to cut production or halt operations. Additionally, fewer working days in February contributed to the decline in total magnesium ingot production.

At the beginning of the month, after the holiday, magnesium plants were cautious in their quotations, with magnesium prices remaining largely stable. Downstream restocking proceeded in an orderly manner, focusing on just-in-time procurement, with low acceptance of high prices. The 99.9% magnesium ingot market transaction prices showed no significant fluctuations. Mid-month, inquiries recovered due to purchases by traders and domestic downstream customers, with concentrated procurement providing demand support for magnesium prices, which remained stable overall.

At month-end, magnesium prices faced downward pressure due to falling raw material prices and financial constraints at magnesium plants. To alleviate financial pressure, magnesium plants continued to lower prices to stimulate downstream purchases. However, excessive price concessions failed to effectively ease financial pressure and instead led to a sharp and continuous decline in magnesium prices, intensifying market panic. With current magnesium prices too low and severe losses for magnesium plants, occasional production cut announcements emerged. Magnesium ingot production in March is expected to decrease compared to January.

Magnesium Alloy

According to SMM data, China's magnesium alloy production in February 2025 decreased by 23.6% MoM, with a significant decline in operating rates among magnesium alloy enterprises. The stabilization of upstream magnesium ingot prices eased the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise" sentiment caused by raw material price fluctuations. Downstream die-casting plants and 3C manufacturers stocked up as needed before the holiday, stabilizing market sentiment. However, as the Chinese New Year approached, with die-casting plants and 3C manufacturers gradually shutting down, some magnesium alloy enterprises reduced operating rates to avoid inventory buildup. As downstream enterprises resume operations, magnesium alloy production in March is expected to recover.

Magnesium Powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in February 2025 decreased slightly MoM. Production varied among magnesium powder enterprises, with most maintaining normal production levels. Downstream steel mills stocked up as needed during the holiday, keeping magnesium powder production stable.

A representative from a major magnesium powder enterprise noted that due to the weak domestic economy, steel mill profits were thin, and downstream purchases were cautious, with demand remaining generally stable. SMM forecasts that domestic magnesium powder production in March will increase slightly due to more working days.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in February 2025 increased slightly MoM.

In early February, rising costs of raw materials such as sulphuric acid and titanium concentrate prompted leading enterprises to issue price adjustment notices, with most titanium dioxide enterprises maintaining firm quotes. Additionally, titanium dioxide enterprises that had previously reduced or suspended production adjusted their operating rates.

As the previous inventory in overseas markets was gradually digested, the export market was still able to mitigate the impact of declining domestic demand. It is understood that some titanium dioxide producers faced tight supply and issued price adjustment notices. At the beginning of this month, titanium dioxide producers raised domestic prices by 300-500 yuan/mt. However, considering the current sluggish market demand, whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be tested by the market. Titanium dioxide prices will continue to be negotiated on a case-by-case basis, and the overall market showed a stable yet slightly weak operating trend. SMM predicts that domestic titanium dioxide production in March may gradually increase.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in February 2025 remained flat compared to the previous month. Entering early February, the supply and demand in the sponge titanium market gradually balanced. Driven by pre-holiday stockpiling, the downstream titanium material market was active, and demand in the titanium dioxide market also improved. Enterprises' inventories significantly decreased, leading to tight spot supply of sponge titanium. The price adjustment strategies of some sponge titanium producers were gradually accepted by the downstream market. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling from downstream manufacturers, the previously increased prices were stabilized. Based on SMM analysis, sponge titanium production in March is expected to gradually recover.

Light Rare Earth

In February 2025, domestic production of Pr-Nd oxide and Pr-Nd alloy both achieved significant growth. The increase in Pr-Nd oxide production was mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Shandong, while the growth in Pr-Nd alloy production was prominent in Jiangxi, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Zhejiang.

According to SMM survey data, in February, enterprises that had suspended operations due to maintenance in January gradually resumed production. Meanwhile, as the market held an optimistic outlook on the future development of Pr-Nd oxides, most separation plants operated at relatively high rates, driving Pr-Nd oxide production to increase by over 7% MoM.

In terms of metal production, many metal enterprises planned capacity expansions this year. Against the backdrop of generally optimistic downstream demand, major metal enterprises operated at full capacity, resulting in Pr-Nd alloy production increasing by over 8% MoM in February.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In February 2025, the production of most medium-heavy rare earth oxides increased MoM compared to January, with the main growth coming from Jiangxi and Jiangsu.

According to SMM surveys, some separation enterprises reduced or suspended production in January for various reasons. However, after the Chinese New Year holiday in February, these enterprises fully resumed production, and their operating rates increased compared to January. These factors collectively drove a significant MoM increase in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production in February.

NdFeB

In February 2025, domestic NdFeB magnetic material production decreased by approximately 3% MoM. According to SMM surveys, following the Chinese New Year holiday, magnetic material enterprises gradually resumed operations in early February. However, due to incomplete employee return, the recovery of production capacity was relatively slow. It was not until after the Lantern Festival that production capacity gradually returned to normal, with enterprises fully engaged in production. After the holiday, tight raw material supply led to a rapid rise in rare earth market prices. However, downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious, and market trading activity was low. The growth in downstream demand fell short of expectations, and magnetic material enterprises focused primarily on fulfilling long-term contract orders. As a result, magnetic material production in February continued to decline, though the overall decline narrowed.

Looking ahead to March, with the full recovery of production capacity and the gradual release of downstream market demand, NdFeB permanent magnet material production is expected to achieve some growth. However, considering the slow pace of demand growth, the increase in production may not be significant.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in February decreased slightly MoM.

During February, domestic molybdenum market demand remained weak, leading to continuous declines in molybdenum prices and gradually worsening profitability for molybdenum concentrate. This prompted molybdenum mining enterprises to lower their production rates. Additionally, stricter environmental regulations and declining ore grades caused slight reductions in molybdenum concentrate production in regions such as Henan, resulting in a slight overall decrease in market supply.

With the arrival of spring in March, the negative impacts of increased beneficiation difficulty caused by northern winter conditions and fluctuations in ore grades in some regions are expected to gradually diminish. Molybdenum concentrate production is anticipated to recover to some extent. However, most mining enterprises still expect to maintain stable production levels.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM statistics, China's ferromolybdenum production in February decreased slightly MoM.

Molybdenum mines maintained stable raw material shipment prices. Against the backdrop of limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials by steel mills, ferromolybdenum tender prices struggled to rise. Due to the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, ferromolybdenum market profits remained negative, prompting some ferromolybdenum smelters to reduce their operating rates. China's ferromolybdenum production in February decreased slightly MoM. As downstream demand gradually recovers, ferromolybdenum production in March is expected to increase slightly MoM.

Ammonium Paratungstate

According to SMM data, China's ammonium paratungstate (APT) production in February increased by approximately 21% MoM. After the Chinese New Year holiday, smelters gradually resumed operations, actively fulfilling long-term contract orders, leading to a significant recovery in APT production in February. Despite tight tungsten ore resource supply and a slight decrease in social inventory of ores during February, spot supply slowly entered the market, and overall raw material supply remained relatively stable.

Looking ahead to March, with the gradual recovery of ore supply, APT raw material supply is expected to increase. However, due to sufficient pre-holiday stockpiling in the market and slow post-holiday downstream demand growth, enterprise confidence remains low. Downstream demand may improve in mid-to-late March. Considering various factors, the growth rate of APT production in March is expected to slow down.

Silver

In February, silver production increased by 2.4% MoM and 15.4% YoY. Fourteen enterprises reported increased production, mainly due to: 1) resumption of operations; 2) some enterprises increased production targets this year, leading to higher monthly supply. To meet production needs, raw materials were procured. In February, as silver's average price was relatively high, raw material enterprises were more willing to sell, facilitating procurement and increasing production. 3) The relatively high silver prices in February boosted market sales enthusiasm, driving corresponding raw material production. Eleven enterprises reported decreased production, mainly due to: 1) fewer production days in February compared to January; 2) raw material fluctuations. As the number of enterprises and the volume of increased production exceeded those of decreased production, silver production in February increased compared to January. Given the forecast that silver prices will remain relatively high in 2025, some smelters have increased their production plans for 2025 to ensure profitability. Some enterprises also plan to increase production in March, so March production is expected to continue rising.

Silver Nitrate

Silver nitrate production in February showed a downward trend, decreasing by 8.7% MoM and 2.9% YoY. According to SMM, the reasons for the decline in February production compared to January include: 1) fewer natural production days in February after excluding holiday factors; 2) low operating rates of PV end-user enterprises after the holiday, coupled with the lack of price advantage for silver in February, resulting in low market order and stockpiling demand; 3) some demand in February was fulfilled through pre-holiday stockpiling in January. Due to concerns about post-holiday early resumption and favorable prices, some enterprises stockpiled for 3-14 days in January, leading to reduced procurement demand in February.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM assessments, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony converted, and antimony cathode) production in February 2025 decreased by 7.84% MoM. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed enterprises, 18 were shut down, an increase of 5 compared to the previous month; 12 reduced production, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous month; and 3 maintained normal production, unchanged from the previous month. Antimony ingot production in February continued to decline after January's decrease. Many market participants considered this normal, as February coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday, and many enterprises only resumed operations after the Lantern Festival. Additionally, some enterprises underwent maintenance or temporarily shut down in early February. Furthermore, with many overseas ore sources unable to enter the domestic market and northern mines halting operations during winter, domestic raw material supply remained relatively tight. Many enterprises indicated that production might recover to some extent in March as the weather warms. Market participants expect China's antimony ingot production in March 2025 to likely rebound significantly compared to February, though it may also remain flat, with a slight decrease being less likely.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing national antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony converted, and antimony cathode) production assessments. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the total number of surveyed antimony ingot producers is 33, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM assessments, China's first-grade sodium pyroantimonate production in February 2025 decreased significantly by approximately 23.5% MoM. Despite consecutive significant declines, many market participants considered this normal, as the Chinese New Year holiday at the end of February led to maintenance or temporary shutdowns for many enterprises in early February. Additionally, due to significant price suppression from downstream glass orders, many sodium pyroantimonate producers showed little interest in signing orders with glass manufacturers. However, some producers indicated that production might slightly recover in March. Detailed data showed that among SMM's 11 surveyed enterprises, 2 were shut down or in commissioning status in February, while the production of other sodium pyroantimonate producers mainly decreased significantly, with almost no enterprises reporting increased production. This led to another significant decline in overall production. Market participants expect China's sodium pyroantimonate production in March to likely remain flat or continue to decrease slightly, with a significant increase being less likely.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing national sodium pyroantimonate production assessments. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the total number of surveyed sodium pyroantimonate producers is 11, distributed across 5 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 75,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM assessments, China's refined bismuth production in February 2025 decreased significantly by approximately 30% MoM. With consecutive significant declines, production fell to a low point again. However, as February began with the Chinese New Year holiday, many enterprises experienced shutdowns. Additionally, raw material supply was slightly tight before and after the holiday, which made the significant production decline in February reasonable. From the perspective of enterprise production, many enterprises underwent equipment maintenance before the holiday. However, a small number of enterprises accelerated production during the holiday to prepare for post-holiday supply, resulting in slight production increases for a few enterprises.However, the production of most manufacturers showed varying degrees of decline. According to detailed data, among the 24 survey targets of SMM, the production of 2 manufacturers in February increased significantly, while the production of the remaining manufacturers either declined to varying degrees or remained relatively small. This led to a significant drop in the overall bismuth ingot production in February compared to the previous month. Therefore, many market participants expect that nationwide bismuth manufacturers will stabilize production in March, with a higher likelihood of a rebound in refined bismuth production. However, considering that raw materials may still be relatively tight, the extent of the production rebound will be somewhat limited.

Explanation: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the SMM National Refined Bismuth Production Assessment. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, SMM surveyed 24 refined bismuth producers across eight provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In February 2025, SMM's domestic lithium carbonate production gradually recovered, up 2% MoM and up 97% YoY. Most upstream lithium chemical plants completed production line maintenance, and production gradually resumed.

By raw material type, lithium carbonate production derived from spodumene increased by 4% MoM in February. Some lithium chemical plants completed production line maintenance during the Chinese New Year holiday and gradually returned to normal production levels, leading to a steady increase in production. However, some lithium chemical plants were still under maintenance, and weaker demand in February led to a reduction in tolling orders for some plants. Overall, lithium carbonate production derived from spodumene showed some growth. Lithium carbonate production derived from lepidolite also increased, up 7% MoM. The resumption of production by top-tier enterprises provided strong support for the total output of lithium carbonate derived from lepidolite, but other non-integrated smelters maintained low operating rates due to cost pressure. Lithium carbonate production derived from salt lake decreased slightly, down 2% MoM, due to weather impacts. Recycled lithium carbonate production also continued to decline, down 7% MoM, as lithium chemical plants underwent maintenance and holiday shutdowns during the Chinese New Year.

In March, most lithium chemical plants are expected to return to normal production, coupled with gradually recovering downstream demand, which will drive upstream lithium chemical plants to increase production. SMM expects domestic lithium carbonate production in March to rise significantly, up 25% MoM.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to SMM, lithium hydroxide production in February reached a recent low due to the Chinese New Year holiday and maintenance, down approximately 4%, but up 15% YoY. On the raw material side, smelting production decreased by about 5%, up 21% YoY. During the holiday period, production days were reduced due to maintenance and holiday arrangements. Additionally, post-holiday demand recovery fell short of expectations, leading some enterprises to maintain low production levels. Causticisation enterprises continued to operate at low rates with a small production base, but some enterprises saw slight production increases due to the ramp-up of new production lines, contributing minimally to the overall supply. In March, as most enterprises complete maintenance and production schedules normalize, lithium hydroxide production is expected to rebound, with growth exceeding 25%. However, due to weak demand growth, some producers are expected to switch from lithium hydroxide production to lithium carbonate, resulting in overall production falling 5% YoY.

Cobalt Sulphate

In February 2025, cobalt sulphate production decreased by 5% MoM but increased by 9% YoY. The decline in February production was mainly due to the overlap of the Chinese New Year holiday in January and February, coupled with logistics and transportation constraints, which slowed downstream demand recovery. In March 2025, as the market gradually recovers and mainstream cobalt sulphate smelters resume operations, production is expected to increase.

Co3O4

In February 2025, Co3O4 production slightly declined compared to the previous month but achieved slight growth YoY. The production decline was mainly attributed to the shorter number of days in February and the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday. During this period, smelters primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders. Additionally, the downstream LCO market was in the off-season, with slightly weak demand and mediocre market transactions. By March 2025, downstream market demand is expected to recover, with potential increases in new orders driving renewed activity in the Co3O4 market. Production is expected to increase MoM and continue to grow YoY.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In February 2025, China's ternary cathode precursor production decreased by 14% MoM and 6% YoY. On the supply side, most producers had stocked up in January, and the Chinese New Year holiday in February resulted in extended shutdowns and restart cycles for precursor manufacturers. Additionally, downstream orders fell short of expectations, significantly impacting precursor production. On the demand side, Q1 is the off-season, with relatively weak domestic and overseas downstream demand. Looking ahead to March, ternary demand is expected to remain relatively mediocre. However, with production fully resuming and more calendar days in March, ternary cathode precursor production is expected to increase by 13% MoM but decrease by 15% YoY.

Ternary Cathode Material

In February 2024, ternary cathode material production decreased by 11.6% MoM and 2.0% YoY. The overall industry operating rate in February was 33%, down from January. By series, 5-series ternary materials accounted for 22%, 6-series for 31%, and 8-series for 40%, with no significant changes in the series proportions. On the demand side, the holiday season and the traditional off-season for the industry led to a noticeable decline in NEV sales at the beginning of the year. Battery cell manufacturers primarily focused on destocking, reducing battery cell production and weakening demand for ternary materials. In the small power and digital 3C sectors, concentrated production and stockpiling by battery cell manufacturers at the end of last year resulted in reduced production schedules and weak material demand at the beginning of the year. In March, with the recovery of terminal sales, ternary cathode material production is expected to increase by 12% MoM.

Iron Phosphate

In February, according to the SMM survey, domestic iron phosphate production decreased by 3% MoM but increased by 262% YoY. The shorter production time in February led some enterprises to conduct maintenance for about a week during the Chinese New Year holiday, resulting in a slight decline in production compared to January. The post-holiday market environment posed new challenges for the iron phosphate industry. Downstream LFP enterprises experienced some order cancellations, reflecting weak market demand. As battery cell and cathode plants continued to digest inventory, iron phosphate enterprises adjusted their production schedules accordingly to adapt to market changes. In terms of pricing, February's iron phosphate prices remained stable compared to January, with no significant fluctuations. Although the price of industrial-grade MAP, a raw material, increased at the end of the month, the flat market demand made it difficult to raise iron phosphate prices during negotiations. In March, LFP market demand is expected to gradually recover, and iron phosphate production schedules will increase accordingly. Although some enterprises plan maintenance in March, they are in the minority and will have a limited impact on overall production. March iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 16% MoM and 90% YoY.

LFP

In February, China's LFP production decreased by 9.28% MoM but increased by approximately 184% YoY, with the overall operating rate dropping to 47%. On the supply side, first- and second-tier LFP material plants maintained stable production without significant reductions, even during the holiday period. However, other small and medium-sized material plants experienced varying degrees of production cuts or shutdowns. This was partly due to rising iron phosphate prices without corresponding increases in processing fees, leading to intensified losses for some enterprises, which chose to halt production. Additionally, downstream orders increasingly flowed to top-tier material plants, causing some small and medium-sized material plants to lose orders and decide to stop production. On the demand side, February was the off-season for the industry, with overall demand declining and battery cell production schedules slightly reduced. Total shipments from material plants decreased slightly, and inventory levels increased.

Looking ahead to March, downstream demand is expected to rise rapidly, driving a significant increase in LFP production. Additionally, processing fees showed an upward trend in February, with some material plants already implementing price increases, mainly for mid- and high-compaction density products. According to SMM, processing fees for mid- and low-compaction density products is unlikely to increase in 2025. To enhance bargaining power and achieve profitability, high-compaction density products have become the industry's development trend.

LCO

In February, LCO production continued to decline, down 7% MoM from January. The production decline was mainly due to the holiday season and the shorter number of calendar days in February. In terms of market structure, the CR5 was 85%, maintaining a high level of industry concentration. On the demand side, digital product demand weakened in February, and battery cell manufacturers slowed their stockpiling pace, leading to a decline in orders. In March, both supply and demand for LCO are expected to recover, with production increasing by 8% MoM.

LMO

In February 2025, LMO production increased compared to the previous month, with a significant YoY growth. After the Chinese New Year holiday, most LMO enterprises completed maintenance and resumed normal operations, leading to a slight increase in market supply. By March 2025, downstream battery cell manufacturers are expected to deplete their inventories to low levels, driving increased procurement demand for LMO. This will result in more inquiries in the market, positively impacting LMO production. Therefore, LMO production in March is expected to increase slightly MoM, with YoY growth remaining stable.

*Survey Methodology

SMM production surveys are conducted by professional analysts through telephone and on-site surveys, tracking China's metal production enterprises on a monthly basis to produce the China Metal Production Report.

During the survey process, the basic coverage ratio of samples is ensured and continuously expanded. Sample selection and distribution consider factors such as capacity scale, regional distribution, and enterprise characteristics to ensure representativeness across all subcategories.

The results are published monthly at month-end through official SMM channels, including the Shanghai Metals Market website www.smm.cn (Chinese) and www.metal.com (English), WeChat subscription account (今日有色), and mobile site (m.smm.cn).